Job growth in the U.S. was weaker in Q3 2026 than in Q2, with losses in July, moderate growth in August, and then smaller gains in September. But signs of stabilization are emerging, according to the High-skilled Job Report for Q3 2026 from professional services company Toptal.
The study notes that layoffs at technology companies have fallen to their lowest level since late 2024, and that total U.S. job postings on the job board Indeed rose 2.8% quarter over quarter and nearly 2% year over year. The report also includes a U.S. job market forecast that projects improved job growth through Q4.
The forecast covers three Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indices: total nonfarm job openings, professional services job openings, and information services (i.e., technology) job openings, as well as a non-BLS job segment specific to remote and hybrid white-collar workers.
According to the report’s analysis of BLS data, overall U.S. job growth has declined by an average of 2.6% per quarter over the past several years. But the forecast model suggests declines will level off in Q4, leaving job growth effectively flat.
The forecasts for professional services and technology jobs are also cautiously hopeful. Professional services job growth fell by an average of 3.1% per quarter for the last several years, but the model projects that this decline will level off in Q4. Technology job growth fell by an average of 6.4% per quarter over the same period, but the model projects the declines will shrink in Q4.
The report also includes a forecast for experienced remote and hybrid professional services and technology workers. The BLS doesn’t track this segment of the market, so historical trend data for this group comes from the labor analytics firm Lightcast. That data shows that job growth for these distributed professionals has increased by an average of 3.4% per quarter over the past several years. According to Toptal’s forecast, growth in this segment will continue in Q4 at a faster pace than its historical average.
Toptal
The report cites fewer tech layoffs and solid U.S. GDP growth as potential drivers of the Q4 outlook. But it also flags energy costs as a risk to the technology hiring outlook specifically: Because AI infrastructure requires substantial electricity, higher energy prices could curb investment in AI infrastructure and reduce related hiring.
The Methodology Behind the Forecast
Toptal’s predictive model draws on 16 years of remote and hybrid job posting data from Lightcast, alongside several macroeconomic indicators that have historically tracked labor market performance.
One of those indicators is the U-6 unemployment rate, which captures both unemployed and underemployed workers. Unlike the more widely cited U-3 unemployment rate, the U-6 includes people working part-time for economic reasons and those who have stopped actively searching for employment but still want work, providing a broader measure of labor market conditions.
The model also incorporates high-yield credit spreads, hiring rates, and inflation-adjusted GDP. Together, these indicators help capture shifts in business confidence, employer hiring behavior, and overall economic activity.
The resulting projections are then compared against several years of Toptal’s client demand for experienced remote and hybrid professionals. According to the report, distributed hiring often serves as an early signal of broader labor market movements because companies frequently use remote talent to address immediate needs or launch new initiatives before expanding to permanent hiring.
The report cautions that the projections should be viewed as directional rather than definitive. Although the model accounts for historical labor market relationships and current economic conditions, the U.S. job market remains uncertain, and hiring outcomes will continue to be influenced by factors not captured in the analysis. It also notes that while remote and hybrid hiring patterns have shown a strong correlation with broader market movements, additional research is needed to better understand the relationship between those trends.
This story was produced by Toptal and reviewed and distributed by Stacker.
